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Time to leave. He's not going to look after the kids, he can't even look after himself.
You are talking about a general population. This is a case where we have prior knowledge. A woman in her 40s with a drastic change in behavior. You have to update your percentage with the new knowledge. This is called bayesian inference and it is a big part of getting statistics to work.
Also, lower down you referred to a percent positive as the “odds”. This makes me worry you are not an expert on statistics.