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It’s 1 in 100 at age 40. By age 45, it’s 1 in 30. She’s 41 now, so she wouldn’t be having a baby until 42 at the earliest, so by then it’s probably closer to 1 in 70 chance. And that’s Down syndrome specifically. I know 3 women of that age who had children with less common (but far more devastating) abnormalities. Is there still a good chance they would have a completely healthy child? Sure. But it would be enormously stupid for him to talk himself into doing something under the idealized assumption that they would have a child just like their son and not take into consideration that it could be a far different situation and they could end up in their mid 40s with a high-needs newborn who may need lifelong care.